Trainer Track Stats

Trainer Track Stats

So it turns out that if you'd have backed all runs with trainer / course combos that historically have made money, guess what - you'd have made money. No Shit Sherlock (NSS).


What do I mean and why am I being such a grouch?


I mean if you look NOW for all Trainer / Course combo's that would have made you money if you'd have backed them, then you'll see the combos that are arguably good combo's - granted, you should keep an eye on them.


Every Good Gambler Knows What to Keep and What to Throw Away


What that does NOT mean is that they WILL continue to be profitable combo's, and what it certainly does NOT mean is that you would have known in advance that they would have been profitable to know to back them in the first place.


I've got an even better system for you - back all the horses that are going to win - awesome. How about this one - 'these are all the winners for the last year, go back in time and bet on them all' Biff Tannen.


I'm basically issuing a bit of a warning not to get sucked it to this sort of rubbish, but of course in my perfectly self righteous manor have a slightly better alternative for you. Feel free to criticise if you feel it's no better than throwing a dart at the Racing Post.


Do it properly or don't bother


So lets consider this as a way to use past stats and pretend you have started this time last year. Sit down and work out all the stats for Trainer / Course combos for runs over the last year (not 5 years as that would take too long!). Take the ones that made profit, or have a positive yield , strike rate, a/e (actual v expected), or whatever you think is good. Back them. Do the same every day for a year (or a decade), each day rerunning the past years stats and backing the stand out ones. After your decade long effort (well done by the way), analyse which stats are more important that others and what values those stats need to be (+25% SR for example). Then blend in Hcap, Country, Class, Going to slightly tune the performance, not back fit to hell, just squeeze out soft going or class 6/7 races or something to give an edge.


Then you'll have done it properly. Then you may have a chance that doing the same thing going forward will have the same impact as what has happened in the past.


Lets make this even better. When you're analysing your stats (bet on all with 25% SR and over for example), only give yourself the stats data for the first 80% of runs to make that decision. Then, if the profit for your system continues to do as well, or nearly as well, for the remaining 20% of time you're less likely to have back fitted and more likely to do OK going on with it from today.


Got all that - OK, lets go and do that. See you in 10 years... Haha, of course (smugness time) - Race Researcher can do all that for you. Its time to seriously step up the way past data is used in relation to what you bet on in the future.


Race Researcher is coming. It is my last and final betting project after 20 years of betting app and web sites. It will change everything you know about stats, system builders and betting. You won't need other system builders. You won't need to follow tipsters. You won't need to guess. You won't need to throw darts at the Racing Post!


All the very best,

Nigel